Liberty Bristles

This is my first attempt to jam what I see going on along the Ukrainian-Russian front (at what some call the operational level) into my own strategy theorizin’. Section 141 in On Multiform War is titled ‘Aggregate Tactics’ and Section 142 is titled ‘Orchestration.’ Those two titles almost sum it up. In my earlier Winning Irregular War, Section 139 is called, ‘Strategy of Aggregate Tactics’ and the following section, 140, is titled ‘Risk Distance and the Pursuit’. I suppose that the aggregation of tactics could also be called the orchestration of tactics. No big deal, but the glue of what the Russians are doing to orchestrate tactics along the front is a constant measurement and re-measurement of local risk distances. It is advantage in the aggregate of local risk distances that matters. In other words, the Russians look in local detail to see how far they can go until it is too costly to proceed. Little culminating points tested over and over. The Russians are aware to plan tactical withdrawals at all times. The Ukrainians, conversely, have to determine how long they can stay in every bunker before they have to withdraw. All this at fifty spots along the whole stretch. Both sides have been made keenly appreciative of the coup d’ oeil. Both sides are buried in the need for efficiency in castrametation. It is just that the Russian armies have fielded more junior leaders who understand all this and far more healthy men for them to lead. It isn’t as though the two bears don’t know the wrestling moves. They’ve been to the same gym.  It is just that the Russians are in a much higher weight class and have been eating better lately. The Ukrainians have some advantage of interior lines. But that’s about it.  That advantage is being swamped by the Russian tactical aggregate. It is too hard for the Ukrainians to shift forces or commit reserves effectively given the numbers and distances of the little Russian breakthroughs. You know what probably doesn’t help you understand all this?  Clausewitz. Clausewitz? Fuhgeddaboudit. Meh. OK, I admit that the term ‘culminating point’ is from Clausewitz. There’s a 2009 article by Michael Toumey I ought to mention. “The culminating point: the lessons of Clauswitz [sic] and operation TORCH..” The Free Library. 2009 U.S. Military Traffic Management Command 26 Feb. 2024 https://www.thefreelibrary.com/The+culminating+point%3a+the+lessons+of+Clauswitz+and+operation+TORCH.-a0215842032   My explanation of it is the most thorough and bestest. On Multiform War. Get two copies so you can read it in stereo.

By the way, on a larger scale, theater let’s say, the Ukrainians reached their culminating point in their grand counteroffensive more than a year ago about when they got to the post office in Robotnye.

On a larger scale still, we exceeded the risk distance of our involvement sometime during the Obama administration.

Important that we keep track of what is going on with both the Hamas and the Ukraine wars. The war at home is getting started, however. It’ll be much different than either of those other two, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t a lot of factors and lessons to be learned. There are also principles that apply to all three — principles that some actors will ignore to their detriment and others remember to their benefit. Right now, I’m trying to figure out the right structure, the right mechanism, the right method for following the war as it unfolds (and if it actually is). I don’t have to have the platform ready immediately.  My goal is to have it set up on this site by the end of the year.  I’m trying to work up the gumption and confidence to make an interactive GIS, even if just a simple one that follows four or five basic items. I think I would like to follow what is going on county by county. I’ll try to track some proxy or reflective conditions or events to show where the war is (or isn’t – the hypothesis will be that the war is raging; I’ll stay open to falsifying the hypothesis).  Right now, I’m thinking that the population of illegally-entered immigrants will be one of the most significant factors in the outbreak of the war. This will have a different shape depending on the outcome of the elections. If the Democrats do poorly, there will be some level of official attempt at deportation. The deportation efforts will likely draw violent responses that have specific, easily mappable locations. If the Democrats do well in the elections, there will be both continued open immigration and public assistance and enfranchisement efforts.  These policies will draw opposition demonstrations at very least, and possibly violence. Other guides might be roadblocks, attacks on infrastructure, etc. Ideas?