Really? We get to hear what German generals are saying in secret? That’s interesting as all hack, if true. (see what I did there?) Doesn’t sound good for the Ukes, but hardly anything does these days. Beyond that is a big fog problem. Deep fake tech is progressing without my permission or input. Seems that it will soon make it tough to believe anything anybody says in the short range (near-term). Everything will require multi-source replication or confirmation, which will take time. It’ll be a nice era for high-resource deceivers. Not saying the leak of the generals is fake or a deception. No clue, really. As for the overall situation in Ukraine, however, I think real property in Kharkiv will be selling cheap. If I were a Russian gazillionaire, I think I’d be looking into buying property rights there, in other choice places east of the Dnieper, and even in Odessa. Anybody have a way of seeing if there is market activity along that vein? It would sure be a solid clue as to Russian elite confidence and intentions.
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I think this conversation has four interesting elements….
First, the German government basically admitting it was real nearly immediately.
Second, it was such an easy intel collection that they Russians are willing to burn it.
Three, going from “here is a weapon” or “here is an interesting target, grid to follow” versus getting into the weapon and weaponeering of the strike is a demonstrable tick up the involvement and escalation ladder. Is it a critical one, politically? Perhaps not. The Western threshold SEEMS to be direct combat involvement. I think the most important is the one the Russians seem to think, and I think they see a sock puppet air strike as far more involvement than the West writ large seems to think.
Fourth, it shows that the Ukrainians are still pretty dependent on Western skills in utilizing complex weapons.