The Ukrainians seem to have shifted into a prevent defense. I don’t know about the Ukrainian or Russian situations enough to deserve to write a prediction, but I’ll do it anyway. I’m thinking that if the Russians take an average of about a half mile a day, in six months or so (that is, well before our elections), the Russians could be on the Kharkiv-Poltova-Kremenchuk-Kropyvnytskyi-Chisinau line, which looks on Google Maps to be more or less marked by Highway E584.

Today the Military Summary Channel noted that the Transdniestrians are in a fluster, about to ask for Russian aid in the face of Moldovan threats or something. All staged prob. In the past, I might have thought that was a mighty rare flavor of contrived dustup for my poor tastes, but right now it seems like it must mean something. I’ve been saying that the longer the Ukraine regime waited to negotiate, the greater the risk of losing Odessa and Ukraine becoming a landlocked, sub sovereign unentity of a state. I’m thinking this Transdniester thing is not good news for the Ukrainians in that regard. Seems the Ukrainians have been launching a lot of HMARS missiles at southern Kherson oblast recently and I wonder if it isn’t because they discovered some worrisome concentrations of Russian offensive forces there. Won’t matter anyhow if the Russian offensive to the north reaches the E584 line sooner than later.  The folks who need to worry are the Moldovans. What are they thinking, or are they? Anybody want to tell me the chances of us helping Moldova are greater than zero? Oh, and Catherine the Great. Her statue keeps getting taken down and put back up in Odessa.  Who wants to take bets with me that she’ll be going back up?

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