The Ukrainian Navy

Insufficiencies of the Ukrainian ground forces have been easy to spot, although given their disadvantages, they’ve been doing work slowing the Russians down and making them pay a toll for territory gained. An aspect significant to our military in the news now is the Ukrainians’ successful use of anti-ship surface drones. The Ukes have been deploying them in swarms, along with aerial drones, at night. They’ve been sinking Russian ships. All of this is naturally a concern for every navy.  We need a large floating navy. Pretty hard to challenge pirates, launch aircraft, deliver supplies to overseas deployments, protect hospital ships, etc. etc. without a surface fleet. Ultimately, any felt duty to keep the world’s sea lanes open for unimpeded commerce can only be fulfilled by a robust surface fleet. And here come the drone swarms overcoming ship defenses. There will be technological answers, of course. What of the Russian response? Likely their analyses will include taking and thoroughly occupying the shorelines from which these things are being launched. The Russian Navy is absorbing big hits, and while that may seem like a big W right now, it can only fuel Russian desire to limit the sharing of the Black Sea among fewer parties. Also note that the drones depend on sat comms. The Russians might have opinions regarding ‘space law.’ NATO is now saying that it will defend Odessa. Huh? Slumping from defense of a fabricated democracy to defense of a secondary port? Sink the Russian Navy and get there by sea? March all the way down Highway E50? Oh, how about a surprise Franco-Prussian-Swedish blitz from Moldova across the Dnieper to turn and crush the Russian flank? Sweet. Gonna need a lot of CGI and social media.

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