Friday in Ukraine

It’s Friday, which means it must be time to make a few more idle Ukraine war comments. Here are several, briefly.

  1. I read how the US Special Forces are being taught Ukrainian. Typical I suppose that we are going to put some of our best soldiers off-line for weeks to learn a language the best use for which is already in the past. We should not bother. Have them learn Tagalog or Spanish or something, but Ukrainian? A bit late.
  2. ‘US military experts’ are saying that Russia’s military is stronger now than it was a year ago. Wow. Credit to all who derided and rejected our government’s reasoning back then that it was somehow worthy or logical to help the Ukraine because it would weaken the Russians militarily.  That was too obviously dumb and now everyone who made or retweeted that nonsense will pretend they never said that.
  3. Willie OAM is one of the best reporters and interpreters of the war. Catastrophic Blow, Completely Destroyed – Is It Too Late? – Ukraine War Map Analysis, News (youtube.com)  Today he reminded of the importance of relative distances and weapons-reach in a war that features indirect targeting. Yes, distance.  The Victoria Nulands of the world, whose strategic education is steeped in PoliSci but who have been spared having to spend any time on a battlefield, do not learn distance.  Also, I pray for Willie OAM’s health.
  4. Willie also recently thought to opine about moral behavior in the Ukraine war. Both sides are committing what elsewhere and at other times would be deemed atrocities. Reports have been unmistakable and many. From conscription practices to the treatment of prisoners to the bombing of medical personnel to targeting civilians. The contest has not been pretty. Whatever your opinion about the value of the laws of war, it is amazing and disconcerting that the war’s moral hazard has been so ineffable – or so ineffed.  This compared to the hyperbolic moral outrage signaling against the Israelis, who have been relatively scrupulous.  The Israelis have shown admirable moral discipline as compared to the Ukrainians and Russians. Hamas, on the other hand, makes the Russian and Ukrainian fighters look like choir boys.
  5. Zelensky, the big Z, Top Comedy, says he’ll totally launch another, much more successful offensive against Putin’s evil Ruskies in 2025 if the West just coughs up what Z says the West is morally obliged to give him. Putin, meanwhile, allows as how he is now looking for total capitulation from the Kyiv regime. Dima (I think that’s his name) at the Military Summary Channel recurs to the use of several endearing phrases during his twice-daily summary of what’s happening on the ground.  One of those catch phrases is “the days for (village name) are numbered” or “(village name’s) days are numbered.” Well, it’s not yet down to counting the days remining for Ukraine, but months? There might not be enough months left in 2024.
  6. The lights are going out in Ukraine as the Russians proceed with their anti-infrastructure take-down. It sounds as though (reports unclear) that the Zelensky government is discouraging people from evacuating Kharkiv.  Why?  Because they will help resist the Russians?  I kinda doubt that’s the reason. More likely is the fear of a few hundred thousand more internal refugees into western Ukraine. That could deal another heavy blow economically. A flow of a few thousand Kharkivites toward Russia might be psychologically blow as well.
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Site Admin Note

I offer this info in response to a couple of interrogatories from the legion of Liberty Bristles stalwarts regarding progress on this site’s development and fighting the war therefrom. The site is advancing full speed ahead, a tout vapor, volle kraft voraus, a toda estupidez. It’s just that ‘full speed’ is not giving the quite the rpms I’d like. As for the two-minute strategery videos that I promise, last month’s launch did not go quite as well as hoped. It turns out we do not have the optimal height of on-air talent.  In order to make up for what may be a lack of charismatic screen presence among the talking heads, I’m learning how to do video editing. It is a bit more of a mental slog, a steeper learning curve than expected.  Nevertheless, I promise to have at least several vids published before Independence Day. As for the War for America GIS Map, I only promise to have it up and running by the end of the year. I really think I’ll beat that, however, and should have a shell mounted and available for public comment before the elections – before my birthday. As for other-than-Liberty Bristles social media entries, I’ve improved slightly and am continuing to do some book advertising on a weekly basis. I assure everyone that all of my efforts will be made without the use of performance enhancing drugs (caffeine excepted, there might be caffeine). Also, my emotional, logistic and grammatical excellence support team is healthy and motivated. Ad Astra Per Awsomepera!

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Risk Distance and the Vantasner Danger Meridian

We decided to binge-watch the television series “Patriot.” The show introduced, as one of its unifying themes, a thing called the ‘Vantasner Danger Meridian.’  After not finding enough about it on plain old Google, I figured I’d talk it up with ChatPGT-4.  As it was a longish exchange, I have put the discussion on the Long Prompts page.  Well worth your perusal, if you’re wanting a double dose of strategy theorizin’, and I know you are.

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Pre-Eclipse Ukraine Update

Warfare along the front line in Eastern Ukraine has been un-dramatic. In general, mappers record a slow, methodical advance by Russian Army units in about half a dozen sectors, but no big breakthrough, no uncontrolled route of the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian ground forces have done a competent job keeping the Russians at bay.  The Russians seem to be applying what I call a strategy of aggregate tactics, that is, no huge left hook sort of effort — no theatre scale advance across the steppe kind of thing — rather a composite of smaller actions seeking local weaknesses. The plan would be to overcome Ukrainian capacity to move reserves laterally or to universally maintain supply. Position and maneuver in the aggregate. Maybe it has worked, but Ukrainian coup d’oeil and underground castrametation have seemingly served well. That and cheap drones. The warfare has imposed a high price in materiel and lives on both sides. Now, however, the price paid by the Ukrainian civilian population has skyrocketed (so to speak), as the Russians started to dismantle the whole Ukrainian energy grid. Russian strategy-making always has deception built-in, and I won’t hazard guessing exactly what the deception is. But the basics remain and so the breakthrough is likely to come. Sadly, on the geostrategic level, it looks more and more as though the Russians have teamed up with the Chinese against the USA. A worse result for the USA I cannot imagine. I still predict a future Ukraine much smaller than shown in a 2010 world atlas.

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The Lord Is Risen

He is risen indeed. Hallelujah.

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Don’t Be a Climate Denier

Don’t let them label you a skeptic, either. That’s just another syntactical ploy to steer away from the truth of the matter. Be an accuser. Be a punisher. Climate alarm and carbon-blaming is a theft scheme, a fraud, a scam, a lie perpetrated by thieving liars.  It is evil, criminal and has little if anything to do with science except to corrupt and destroy, using the image of science. No skepticism here. Quite sure they are a bunch of evil cons. Our long-term challenge is their impunity.

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Ukraine Opinion Update

My relatively ignorant uninformed take: Darkening prospects for the survival of Ukraine. Slow, grinding, accelerating Russian progress all along the front. The Ukrainians have done amazingly well in slowing the advance. The Ukrainians have mounted a combination of competent coup d’oeil with agile underground supply and reinforcement to make it a costly slog for the Russian Army. Also, the Ukrainians have been aided by Western intelligence and weaponry. Nevertheless, the Russians are not deterred, the direction of things has not changed in months, and, in the absence of some big fat Black Swan, things won’t turn around in the coming months. If the Ukrainian government doesn’t tap out soon, leftover Ukraine will not have a port on the Black Sea. And the French? They cannot save Odessa. All the French President can hope to do is further insult the bear in order to look less half-mannish. If the Ukrainians want to keep Odessa, they will have to accept semi-sovereign status as a disarmed, neutral buffer state.

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Israeli and World Geography

I offer this small geographic note to any among my legion of fans who might for whatever reason find themselves in a friendly, open, intellectual exchange regarding the country of Israel and its future. I ask that you begin your participation by noting that the population of the state of Israel is about 100 to 120 times less than the population of the world’s Moslem states. The area difference is much greater. The Moslem countries of the world have between 700 and 800 times the dirt that Israel has.  Math is hard. I often go to the CIA’s World Fact Book for ease and some consistency, but that too has become a propaganda sheet. For instance, it includes ‘West Bank’ as though it were a country with its own population of over three million. Tough to decide how large a majority of Moslems is needed to include a country as Moslem.  I did not include Maylasia in my tabulation. But it does not matter.  There is no way to get a calculation that does not show but one small Jewish state and a lot of large Moslem ones. Any notion that Israel is not the besieged underdog is, well, questionable. Is there some obvious, practical need for there to exist another Moslem country bordering on Israel, maybe to lend another vote at the UN? I’m thinking not.

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On the War for America in 2025

Tip to Citizen Free Press and X. (8) End Wokeness on X: “All hell breaks loose at an airport in Paris as illegals try to stop a deportation: https://t.co/8sxKK72q0z” / X (twitter.com)

The video purportedly shows a group of illegals fighting to stop a deportation.  What we might experience in the United States in 2025 could be what we see in that video times ten thousand.

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Things Are Messed Up

A couple of news items drag me in today. One is the cargo ship hitting Key Bridge in Baltimore.  Not all details in yet, but already easy to compare to the Ukrainians (with our help I assume) trying time after time to knock out the Russian’s Crimea Bridge with only limited success. Here comes what looks like an accident or maybe a negligence of some sort — and whammy, one of our most valuable pieces of infrastructure does down in seconds.  Kind of makes you wonder at how easily our systems can be compromised. The other news item is also still fact-sketchy, but it looks like our Special Forces trained a Palestinian Authority dude in sniping. Said Palestinian Authority dude was a good student who has followed up his training by killing a handful of Israelis. What in blazes were we thinking? Why in the world would be providing military training to any Palestinians? Who else would they shoot? Something is very wrong.

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