The Upcoming Elections

This post is for those of you seeking my advice regarding the upcoming 2024 federal elections.  Ha ha…You must be kidding me…get a life. Yes, well, getting over your lack of self-respect, here is what I think.

We need to ignore as best as possible the Trump vs Biden conversation.  We need to ignore the ‘Biden is a jerk, Biden is too old, Biden is senile’ messaging and narrative. I believe all that is red herring. We have to make the contest Trump vs the Democratic Party of the United States. We need to drum on the idea that the Democratic Party is the evil entity. The actual leadership of that evil entity is looking for a pathway past Biden-Harris, and we need to be ready for however that play unfolds. Biden is not the issue and has not been for some time. Here is a chart…

Potential differences if Trump is or is not elected:

Issue/election outcomeNot Trump (Dem Party Control)Trump (Greater MAGA influence)
AbortionFunded right at any time.Restricted, not federally funded and left to States.
Illegal ImmigrationOpen and encouraged. Amnesty and suffrage pushed forcefully.Reduced. Some deportation, possible widespread deportation.
Federal govt regulationIncreased. Definite movement toward social credit scoring, federal control over individual travel, land ownership and finances.Decreased federal regulation. Possible decrease in federal agency powers, at least in selected agencies like ATF, EPA, Education
Global Warming Redistribution of (a lot of) money to ‘solve’ the non-problem. Dem Party/US Gov participation in international and NGO identities scamming the money.Little direct funding to stop warming and less government participation in international or NGO scam operations
Health CareFurther move toward fully nationalized health care system. Greater social control by ‘health’ agencies. Possible staged pandemic.Some movement toward freer market system elements. Curtailing and investigation of federal health agencies. Unlikely to see pandemic.
Foreign PolicyIncreased subordination to international organizations, NGOsDemotion of international organizations, NGOs.
..Continued shift toward Iran, away from Israel.Solidified support to Israel.
..Favorable toward Chinese CCP.Rebalance away from Chinese CCP.
..Rapprochement with Cubans.calling out Cubans, Bolivarians.
..Continue funding weapons to Zelensky regime if the Russians have not already won.Cutting losses and redirecting defense spending to not include Zelensky regime or fighting against Russia.
..Democratic Party will seek ways to further abandon Taiwan and allow reunification of China under CCP control.Defense of Taiwan reaffirmed and US defense spending and deployment shifted toward that end.
EducationHeavy support to traditional teachers’ union.Push toward vouchers and decrease of teachers’ union control.
Free SpeechMove toward hate speech controls and independence of university administrative control over student and faculty speech.Movement back toward full observance of freedom of speech.
Right to Bear ArmsWidespread efforts at gun control.Spread observance of right to bear arms.
Free Exercise of religionConstrictions on religious liberties.Protection of Freedom of Religious Expression.
Rule of LawLikely impunity for federal agency violators of individual rights.Possible prosecution of high-ranking violators of individual liberties.
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Sieg Heil

OK, today we need to give Volodymyr a new title as he is evidently no longer President, but something else under martial law. I’m going with Obergruppenführer Zelensky. Too much rank? Wrong language?

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The Misuse of Ukrainian Special Forces?

Once again checking in with Willy OAM. I’ve been hitting his site lately as the plot may be thickening and a Russian breakthrough on the near horizon, but who knows. Anyhow, beginning at about the 13:00 mark, Willy talks about a knowledgeable, elite friend of his who has repeatedly lamented the misuse of Ukrainian ‘special forces.’  I wondered in a comment if it might not be that no ‘strategic uses’ exists because of lack of transport. Let’s assert two broad traditional use categories for special forces type personnel — training of foreign forces in guerrilla warfare and raiding (OK, we could tease out others). To do the training guerrilla bit, there has to be some territory into which the forces can be placed where there is an appreciable body of potential guerrillas. To achieve the other (some sort of raid), any mission proposal depends on transportation capacity to and from a target. If strategic movement cannot be reasonably effected, fuhgeddaboudit. Indeed, if special ops transport cannot be mounted, there is no special ops force, just a bunch of better, more resolute athletes who have been organized on the basis of elite mentality and some hope. As Borat might tell you, “The problem is transport.” Maybe Willy’s friend wants to think he’s with some special guys, but they are effectively a bunch of rangers who don’t have any ‘SF’ guys who need saving and no plane to jump out of. In fact, your friend is with a group that long ago became high-end infantry reserves. Maybe they are being put to their best possible use — shoring up areas where defensive fortifications were not well-enough prepared or where less well-trained troops cannot survive — which now looks like a lot of areas.

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Where Will It End? (In Ukraine)

Willy ended his show today, 12 May, with a reasonable “No one bloody knows.” Russia’s Real Goal As Multiple Positions FALL – ‘Extremely Dire’ – Ukraine War Map Analysis (youtube.com) The Russian territorial advance has picked up speed of late, but as to Russian objectives, “No one bloody knows” is reasonable analysis. Still, this would be a good time for us to place some bets — as a record for grading our predictive senses. How about we each assert an approximate line of Russian advance as of a date certain, say 1 February 2025? I suggest that date because right now I assume Donald Trump will have become President of the United States, will have his foreign affairs team more-or-less in place and will have set in motion an abrupt end to US support to the Kviv regime. Eight months is a long time, I know, so no shame in being wrong. My prediction: The borderline of Russian control will run approximately along highway E584 all the way from Okny in the south through Kropyvnyski to Poltova then north through Sumy. Anyone?

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Attrition Warfare?

Nah, not really

Willy OAM has a nice discussion page for the Ukraine war. Today, 11 May, I made another comment there. RU Northern Offensive – Perfect Timing, Part Of A Bigger Plan? Deception? – Ukraine War Map Analysis (youtube.com)

I was being a little poopy. Here is what I said. I think it pretty much speaks for itself.

“Great discussion, Willy, as usual. I have some mild concern about material you bring up/assert beginning at about the 10:38 mark. That paragraph that starts the ‘Military Dimension’ section is, well, I dunno; it tripped me up. “Military operations in an attritional conflict are very distinct from those in a war of manoeuver.”  Really?  How is that? Where does that come from? Can’t we just say that efforts to attrit can be part of most any scheme? Anyhow, I don’t see how this war is a war of attrition and not one of maneuver. I don’t think an army takes ground with attrition, and it appears from all we have seen and you’ve reported, that the Russians have learned how to work around complex field fortifications. If the Russians are moving forward, it’s logical that moving forward was their intention.  If they do it via multiple small flanking movements and pincers, then, hey, maneuver. “The dominant form of combat is fires and not manoeuver, complemented by extensive fortifications and camouflage.”  Say what?  So the troops deploying on the ground are in support of the artillery and the drones? The fortifications are there principally to stop artillery and not to stop enemy advance?  I think maybe you briefly fell into a logical inversion trap of some kind here.  Maybe the age-old problem in military theory writing of too much deduction over induction.  That is, folks start to like the name of a category and then go looking for ways to find the category. Here’s a strategy theory word I suggest we consider – initiative. When a gen-gen has the initiative, it means he is deciding the actions and the other guy is wondering and reacting. Everything Zelensky says and does right now is that of a leader who does not have the initiative. I think we can safely doubt that Putin is principally or even mildly concerned about any peace talks he isn’t guiding, or is he working off any timeline imagined in Kiev, Stuttgart or Washington.”

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A Federal Tax Lottery — Now

OK, I need for you to think about this.  I’ve mentioned this to some of you before and you’ve rolled your eyes. DO NOT ROLL YOUR EYES.  Rude and a misplaced sentiment at best.

We need to talk up the idea of a national tax lottery, more or less as follows:

  1. Every year for a period of ten years, a random 2,000 American citizen taxpayers would win 100 million dollars each. If my math is correct, that adds up to 20 billion bucks a year for a total of 200 billion redistributed almost at random;
  2. Only persons who had filed and paid a positive tax amount for the preceding three years would be eligible;
  3. No one in prison with a sentence of over a year eligible;
  4. No one with a taxed wealth of over 20 million eligible;
  5. No non-citizens eligible;
  6. The winnings would not be subject to federal tax;
  7. The winnings would be delivered in cash to up to five locations of the winner’s choosing;
  8. The winners’ identities would not be released by the government for one year.

This is not just a fun idea. It is a good and important idea for the health of the country.  Tell me why I’m wrong and be prepared to suffer the shame of your more but greatless wrongness.

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They Have a Council You Say?

Here’s a headline from ‘Natural News” aggregated in Citizen Free Press — Ukraine Petitions Council of Europe to Cancel Elections, Suspend Human Rights Protections in Order to “Stop Russia”

Folks, I can’t help but think that this suspension of rights thing is more of a reason for the war than it is a response to the Russian invasion.  Unfortunate that the headline says, ‘Ukraine Petitions’ instead of ‘The Zelensky Regime Petitions.’  Ukraine does not do or ask for anything. If this petition were to be granted, it would certainly underline that there is no Ukraine in a polity sense. It would be a big tell. But regardless of what said council-contraption grants or doesn’t, why suppose or concede that the Council of Europe is at all ethical or legitimate such as to form and give an opinion that matters whit about anything at all?  AmIwrong?  

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The Interior of the Deep State

Today let’s talk about Deb Holland.  She might be the bestest postergirl for what is wrong with America’s government right now. I just spent some irritating minutes watching YouTube videos of not-Democrat senators and congressmen asking her questions. If you want a quick political adrenaloutrage rush thing, this little series should do it.

(39) BRUTAL: James Risch Asks Deb Haaland Extremely Simple Questions Over And Over—And She Can’t Answer – YouTube

(39) ‘So You’re Not In Charge?!’: Josh Hawley Goes Absolutely Nuclear On Deb Haaland Over ‘Corruption’ – YouTube

(39) ‘She’s Not Answering My Question’: Harriet Hageman Shows No Mercy Grilling Deb Haaland – YouTube

As an aside, I want to go off in a direction suggested by the last of the above three vids — the plight of American Indian tribes and depredation of tribal lands brought by international drug cartels (presently of mostly Mexican ownership identity). The considerable deterioration in material life brought to the reservations by drug cartels is a byproduct of the Democrat open border policy, to include not only the huge increase in cartel footsoldier numbers, but also the impunity that Democratic Party structures directly and indirectly afford the cartels. It is another depressing and maddening shame brought to us by that collaboration of criminals. That said, I want to highlight an interesting more-than-detail regarding the nature of property ownership. It is something I saw in government-run land tenure systems and reform attempts in Mexico, Honduras, Colombia and other places in Latin America. Like the United States and Canada, the Iberoamerican countries are home to large indigenous landholdings. Summarizing mightily here, it turns out that socialist political parties, drug gangs and hybrids of the two greatly favor traditional centralized tribal leadership schemes over the privatization and particularization of land ownership. The former format keeps the vast majority of tribal populations powerless. Moreover, it presents to criminal organizations infinitely smaller tribal leadership target groups to bribe and blackmail. When we remember that there are a lot of bad people, and then we key in on the significance of planned impunity in their modus operandi, we again see why disperse property ownership is likely to correlate with liberty.

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Ukrainya

I decided to make another comment at Willie OAM’s site. Here below is that comment in full:

“Willie, at around the 19- or 20-minute mark you talk about how the US won’t pull out of NATO. You had also talked a bit about how Zelensky has a ten-year dream. Too soon to say, who can tell, but the probability is that we elect Donald Trump as the next President. The US Ship-of-State being large and cumbersome, any new helmsman who might want to radically change directions will find how the ship doesn’t respond thusly. The US especially suffers inertia in policies and in whatever ideology or interests fuel those policies. The deep state is real, durable and jealous. Nevertheless, things will have a different flavor if an anti-Democrat/anti-Uniparty crew gains top-end influence within the 2025 administration. The notion of ‘pulling out of NATO’ is too on-off, but NATO might take a serious demotion in accordance with the lack of respect a Trump crew will accord that gun club and its reasons for being. Money toward the Ukrainian laundromat will likely continue to flow, but at a much slower pace and lower level. Any decade-long vision for the Zelensky war will be moot nonsense. The borders of post-war Ukraine will emerge within two years of the new US inauguration, that is, by January 2027. What will they look like? Entertaining for us to guess, I guess. My guess? Russia keeps everything it has at this moment plus Kharkiv and Odessa. Curious to see if Transdniestria grows. The new Ukrainya will not be in NATO and will be allowed a military only suitable for defending itself against a Slovakian onslaught. In Muhther Ruhsia, peace treaty make YOU.”

Am I wrong?

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Odessa?

I just now made a comment on the Willie OAM site. I had noted that during his presentation and unlike the Military Summary Channel’s moring report, that Willie had taken information about Russian advances in the Robotnye are ‘with a grain of salt.’ My comment was, in relevant part, “Makes sense, given so many months of back-and-forth followed by more of nothing from that direction. Still, it’s a place we should now watch with extra care. The Russians have a deception master plan plenty good enough to keep me confused. More consequentially, there is little reason for confidence that the Russians can’t keep Western intel agencies confused.  We might want to put the lull in Robotnye activity alongside the withdrawal of the Russian Navy.  Wasn’t there recently a burst in the use of Kalibre missiles?  Might be a tell, and so might  taking the little town of Robotnye. Maybe the Russians feel they have successfully addressed the fleet’s vulnerabilities. Maybe maybe the big play is to take Odessa, or maybe the big play is to make a big play for Odessa, thus leaving Kharkiv abandoned. In any case, his Macroness did noting to scare the Russians away from the jewel — which reasonably, historically, logically, strategically, is Catherine’s port. No?” Keep in mind, Willie OAM is almost always correct. So there is that. (29) Surrounded On 3 Sides, More Towns & Positions Fall – Ukraine War Map Analysis & News Update – YouTube ; (29) The Russians Broke Through The Defense In The Zaporizhzhia Direction. Military Summary For 2024.4.30 – YouTube

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