Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, Democrats

I just re-read my 5 December post in which I set my strategery prediction for the Ukraine war. I’m sticking with it. April comes and we will witness a shift in the Democrat narrative. Somehow, they will try to sell the idea that Trump or his MAGA acolytes will have botched things for NATO and the West, and that’s why the Russians have clearly defeated the noble Volodymyrites. The Ruskies will have some mopping-up to do, but it will have become undeniable by late Spring that the Russians won, albeit at a greater cost that they expected. I admit that I had thought back last year that the Russians would have had this sewed up within six weeks or so after they started, but my thinking had once again fallen into the mistake of believing that the US administration could not be so dumb as to commit to a militarily dubious enterprise outside NATO boundaries — right after having so badly muffed the Afghanistan withdrawal. My little brain thing was trapped within the same walls that I am forever railing against. The Democrats were not interested in Freedom, security of NATO Europe, or the sins of Putin. That was all ridiculous on its face. The Democrats were looking to protect their impunity. Anyhow, in my December post I suggested that strategy basics would hold sway, that distance and weight would prevail in this case, and indeed they will. One thing I did not stress, however, and it needs to be highlighted, is the lack of an honest, reasonable (or, hell, if not those things, at least expressed and logical) US objective. Constantly intoning that the US, “will do whatever it takes” is the clear giveaway, the tell. Our government won’t say what “it” is. The Russian government seems to know what “it” is for them. They’re going to take the good stuff. The “West” will then get to kissing Russian strategic butt again, even as Western diplomats make scolding tweets about bad Putin. The duplicity will be especially unseemly as the samo samo Democrats try to explain why they raised up an inveterate lying corruptionist to be President of the United States.

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Why I am the greatest living Strategic theorist, reason #4,682:

I just rediscovered a note I had made to myself to comment on a series of articles written by Armin Rosen, mostly for the online magazine Tablet. Just go there and they are easy to find. One of the latest was, “A Hate Crime a Day Keeps the DOJ Away.” A Rise In Hate Crimes Against Jews In NYC – Tablet Magazine

Mr. Rosen has covered the continuing rise in violent crimes obviously directed at Jews, particularly in New York. His chronicling over the past few years makes for a very depressing and angering read. The point I want to make here is a relatively minor one, about a development in his language on the subject. I believe, and I might be wrong about Mr. Rosen’s thinking, that his and others’ writings had been suggesting that there was no organizing pattern involved in the widespread increase in what are undeniably “hate crimes,” if that expression has any independent value at all. That thought seems to have given way to the observation regarding impunity, that crimes against Jews in particular are not pursued. While Mr. Rosen has perhaps not quite arrived at the point of screaming it as I do, THAT is the organizing principle. The organizers of the organizations that provide organized impunity — THEY are the criminal conspirators, THAT is the evil conspiracy. And of course, that’s why I put impunity as a core, if not THE core organizing principle of my strategy writings — especially On Multiform War: Strategy, Revolution, and the Nine-Head Monster. That monster is an impunity creator. Why it hates Jews and why I am a revolutionary are related topic for other posts. Mr. Rosen — please buy my book. It was written for you.

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Our Intelligence Speaks

A Moment of Strategery

Averil Haines talked at the Reagan Library the other day.  More or less, she said the war in Ukraine isn’t going well for the Russians, there is a lull in the fighting, and a few other things.  I’m going to take a stab at predicting the war right here in public.  While Haines supposedly has all the information and intelligence from all sorts of agencies to back up here comments, I have no inside information whatsoever.  On the basis of almost nothing, I’m confident I can do a better job for you with my crystal ball than she can with her public comments, especially if you are betting with other peoples’ money. I will depend for my description of how things are going on the strategy basics (as exhaustively intertwined in Multiform War and in prior writings. I’lll also draw on my abiding distrust of the top tier of leaders in our intelligence apparatus.  Whatever they say in public I have to presume is somehow off. So here it goes:

Distance. The kilometric distances greatly favor the Russians in this war, but the more important distances are the risk distances, the relative distances to the operational culminating points. TO refresh, the culminating point is a theoretical point in time and space beyond which it is imprudent to continue an advance or to stay in a place.  Imprudence in this case means an unacceptable likelihood that the missin will fail and or that ones’ own forces are going to take terrible casualties. 

Mens Rea.  One of the historically recurring situations, which On Multiform War covers ad-nauseum, is of the need to close with and neutralize the Mens Rea, that is, an enemy’s ultimate source of direction and power.  If the Taliban core enjoys sanctuary in Pakistan, or the URNG in  Mexico, or the FARC in Venezuela, or the Vietnamese Communists in Hanoi, or on and on, then a war is gonna go on and on.  Get to Berlin to take out the head Nazi — that’s it. Everything else is a dubious, probably futile long shot. If we’re willing to send a simultaneous thermonuclear nuclear strike to every possible Putin safe space, that’d do the trick to “win the war.” What a strategically pure and beautiful answer total annihilation of the enemy could be. Might be costly.

Coup d’État.  Historically, the coup is the nifty way to avoid all the other inconveniences of field strategy principles and the messiness of battles. Is it possible that our intelligence community has in place the institutional capacity to bring down the Putin regime from within?  Nah, infinitely slim chance they can do to Putin what they enthusiastically and effectively did to American President Trump.  Again, the distances, physical and cultural, are far too great.

Adam Smith’s Pimp Hand. Messing with the market by trying “economic sanctions” is almost for sure a step into the horsecrap of unexpected and completely predictable negative consequences.  No way we’re gonna make the Putin Regime, or even Mother Russia for that matter, suffer more than our supposed and soon to be erstwhile “allies.”

Allying with the French.  Oooof

Semantic Oblivion of Poly-Sci.  There is too much weak Poli-Sci grammar to go into here. Hans Morgenthau, Henry Kissinger, Otto Bismarck.  They all almost spoke English, and they all fed American Poli-Sci.  Seems no getting away from it.  But one example for now – “West vs East.”  Listen for it, it is ubiquitous.  What should the West do? How should the West react?  Evidently the subliminal is that France and Germany are West and Russia is East.  I can’t help but ask how the hell Ukraine got into West and not Russia.  One flimsy election of a comedian? Not buying it. If Russia is still “East” then we have extended into to the East to war within the East.

All in all, given the basics of Multiform War, given the strategic principles, I’d say that by April Fool’s Day the Russians will own all the parts of Ukraine they really want and will declare the war over. The “West” will take it and like it, claiming to save Rump Ukraine after uselessly having helped visit ruin, death and dismemberment upon all kinds of Ukrainians, who the NATOites will then say were never in NATO anyhow.

Don’t worry, Averil will be fine.

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US Department of Labor Giving Money

A sidenote, I noticed this as a minor outrage headline in Citizens Free Press. The link to the Labor Department news release is US Department of Labor announces $12M cooperative agreement to strengthen labor rights, empower workers in Brazil, Colombia, Peru | U.S. Department of Labor (dol.gov). Inside that release are a couple more links, the first one to The Solidarity Center – Promoting Worker Rights Worldwide

No big deal, but if you are interested in doing some easy shot intergoogle sleuthing to find the world communist conspiracy, this is a little beachhead. The left is more and more brazen about naming their leaders and places. In this instance, the naming could lead to the creation of an appreciable network map. I’m not gonna do it. One of our contributors said something in a text or an email to me the other day that prompted my mentioning this item. He wondered to me why the Democrat Party is seeming so much like the Chinese Communist Party. Hahahaha. When we drill down to who everyone spends time with in all the foreign forums and actionist get-togethers, we find that the Democrats and world commies spend a lot more time together than any other US political organizations — a lot more time that the Dems spend with anyone in the Republican party, not that the latter does much anyhow.

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The Fourth Reich

I just listened to an interesting audio at:

PULITZER-WORTHY! KLAUS SCHWAB’S NAZI ROOTS FINALLY TRACED!

by Silviu “Silview” Costinescu

PULITZER-WORTHY! Klaus Schwab’s NAZI roots FINALLY TRACED!

Some conspiracy theory you can sink your brain into.

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Microwaving Coffee

I know you’re not supposed to reheat coffee in the microwave, but I learned some time ago that we can take, say, two-thirds of a mug full of microwave re-heated coffee, mix in some of the original brew, and the taste comes out pretty good. Now I’m thinking the whole “don’t reheat in the microwave ” thing needs to be reconsidered, freshly studied. It definitely changes the taste of the coffee. That’s true, but I believe some coffees might come out better than others. I just reheated a cup of coffee that I had thought tasted a tad bitter out of the pot, and I’m thinking the taste improved with the microwaving. Too many variables for me to commit even to a hypothesis at this time, but I think there needs to be some research.

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Election Day

Election Day doesn’t seem like such a big day to me this year in spite of how significant the results might be. I think it is because we already voted and there is no one election day, maybe not even an election counting day. I’m thinking that’s not such a good thing, but maybe it’s OK. I’m gonna wait a bit to decide, but as of right now I’m figuring that when I become King, I’m gonna get everybody back to voting on Election Day.

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Brazil on Precipice

Hard not to talk about Paul Pelosi, but Brazil losing an election, that is, communist Lula da Silva returning to the presidency is the big news of the day, especially as Ukraine news has evidently been slowed down for the elections. Lula is not good for Brazil, the continent or for us. Our State Department and whoever is running the White House will probably not see it that way, so at least they’re happy.

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US European Strategy

I just read James Howard Kunstler’s blog, specifically his short piece on the United State’s evidently being the party guilty of sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines. Here’s a link — Developing Developments – Kunstler. He references a recent and compelling analysis published by Monkey Werx — The Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Sabotage — MonkeyWerx (monkeywerxus.com) Worthy.

For the United States government to have made such a move is tough to digest, even for me, now beyond convinced of the clumsy, ignorant evil of our current national leadership. Dumb, counterproductive, destructive? Nah, none of that suffices. There isn’t even enough self-serviceable realpolitik logic in all of Henry Kissinger’s wrinkles to make such a move anything but dumbfoundingly bewildering, so much so that it will take some time to become as angry about it as it deserves. Fortunately, there are almost always unintended consequences and silver linings in most of the hurtful things the current administration does to us. We should have started closing the NATO shop a long time ago. Now it might close itself, if not in on itself, soon. I had wondered what on earth the administration might do to make their Afghanistan debacle look not so bad, and now that what-on-earth has a name — Ukraine.

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Ukranian Counteroffensive Sep 10thish

I have no special knowledge, might not understand the Russian way of war, but I’m thinking that Putin’s winning, albeit more slowly than he had hoped.  The Russian people seem to be more and more behind the effort, not against it, probably because the west has made such a moralizing fuss.  Russians know they have a corrupt government, but they also know that the Ukrainians have just as corrupt a government. The Russians have plenty of time, too, more than the rest of Europe.  No amount of money is going to save Ukraine, especially not our money. The Russians will have no fuel shortages and no economic crisis this winter.  Not sure about the Euros. I might have this wrong, but it seems a Russian Army almost always make the enemy army its central objective, terrain remaining preparatory and secondary.  Also, I don’t believe a thing Zelensky says and hardly anything our government says.  If I were Putin, I think I’d just keep pluggin’ away.  No need for nukes.  Ukraine will soon run out of soldiers willing to be cannon fodder for the WEF.  So, my present idle prediction is…wait for it…March 2023 – total abject Ukranian capitulation followed by empty show of Russian grace and Putin magnanimity, as well as some tremendous clever-by-half propagandistic gaslight jiujitsu brain torque on the part of NATOistas.

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