The Misuse of Ukrainian Special Forces?

Once again checking in with Willy OAM. I’ve been hitting his site lately as the plot may be thickening and a Russian breakthrough on the near horizon, but who knows. Anyhow, beginning at about the 13:00 mark, Willy talks about a knowledgeable, elite friend of his who has repeatedly lamented the misuse of Ukrainian ‘special forces.’  I wondered in a comment if it might not be that no ‘strategic uses’ exists because of lack of transport. Let’s assert two broad traditional use categories for special forces type personnel — training of foreign forces in guerrilla warfare and raiding (OK, we could tease out others). To do the training guerrilla bit, there has to be some territory into which the forces can be placed where there is an appreciable body of potential guerrillas. To achieve the other (some sort of raid), any mission proposal depends on transportation capacity to and from a target. If strategic movement cannot be reasonably effected, fuhgeddaboudit. Indeed, if special ops transport cannot be mounted, there is no special ops force, just a bunch of better, more resolute athletes who have been organized on the basis of elite mentality and some hope. As Borat might tell you, “The problem is transport.” Maybe Willy’s friend wants to think he’s with some special guys, but they are effectively a bunch of rangers who don’t have any ‘SF’ guys who need saving and no plane to jump out of. In fact, your friend is with a group that long ago became high-end infantry reserves. Maybe they are being put to their best possible use — shoring up areas where defensive fortifications were not well-enough prepared or where less well-trained troops cannot survive — which now looks like a lot of areas.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Where Will It End? (In Ukraine)

Willy ended his show today, 12 May, with a reasonable “No one bloody knows.” Russia’s Real Goal As Multiple Positions FALL – ‘Extremely Dire’ – Ukraine War Map Analysis (youtube.com) The Russian territorial advance has picked up speed of late, but as to Russian objectives, “No one bloody knows” is reasonable analysis. Still, this would be a good time for us to place some bets — as a record for grading our predictive senses. How about we each assert an approximate line of Russian advance as of a date certain, say 1 February 2025? I suggest that date because right now I assume Donald Trump will have become President of the United States, will have his foreign affairs team more-or-less in place and will have set in motion an abrupt end to US support to the Kviv regime. Eight months is a long time, I know, so no shame in being wrong. My prediction: The borderline of Russian control will run approximately along highway E584 all the way from Okny in the south through Kropyvnyski to Poltova then north through Sumy. Anyone?

Posted in Conflict Geography, Conflict Geography, Geography | 3 Comments

Attrition Warfare?

Nah, not really

Willy OAM has a nice discussion page for the Ukraine war. Today, 11 May, I made another comment there. RU Northern Offensive – Perfect Timing, Part Of A Bigger Plan? Deception? – Ukraine War Map Analysis (youtube.com)

I was being a little poopy. Here is what I said. I think it pretty much speaks for itself.

“Great discussion, Willy, as usual. I have some mild concern about material you bring up/assert beginning at about the 10:38 mark. That paragraph that starts the ‘Military Dimension’ section is, well, I dunno; it tripped me up. “Military operations in an attritional conflict are very distinct from those in a war of manoeuver.”  Really?  How is that? Where does that come from? Can’t we just say that efforts to attrit can be part of most any scheme? Anyhow, I don’t see how this war is a war of attrition and not one of maneuver. I don’t think an army takes ground with attrition, and it appears from all we have seen and you’ve reported, that the Russians have learned how to work around complex field fortifications. If the Russians are moving forward, it’s logical that moving forward was their intention.  If they do it via multiple small flanking movements and pincers, then, hey, maneuver. “The dominant form of combat is fires and not manoeuver, complemented by extensive fortifications and camouflage.”  Say what?  So the troops deploying on the ground are in support of the artillery and the drones? The fortifications are there principally to stop artillery and not to stop enemy advance?  I think maybe you briefly fell into a logical inversion trap of some kind here.  Maybe the age-old problem in military theory writing of too much deduction over induction.  That is, folks start to like the name of a category and then go looking for ways to find the category. Here’s a strategy theory word I suggest we consider – initiative. When a gen-gen has the initiative, it means he is deciding the actions and the other guy is wondering and reacting. Everything Zelensky says and does right now is that of a leader who does not have the initiative. I think we can safely doubt that Putin is principally or even mildly concerned about any peace talks he isn’t guiding, or is he working off any timeline imagined in Kiev, Stuttgart or Washington.”

Posted in Clausewitz Sucks, Conflict Geography, Conflict Geography, Geography, Strategy | Leave a comment

A Federal Tax Lottery — Now

OK, I need for you to think about this.  I’ve mentioned this to some of you before and you’ve rolled your eyes. DO NOT ROLL YOUR EYES.  Rude and a misplaced sentiment at best.

We need to talk up the idea of a national tax lottery, more or less as follows:

  1. Every year for a period of ten years, a random 2,000 American citizen taxpayers would win 100 million dollars each. If my math is correct, that adds up to 20 billion bucks a year for a total of 200 billion redistributed almost at random;
  2. Only persons who had filed and paid a positive tax amount for the preceding three years would be eligible;
  3. No one in prison with a sentence of over a year eligible;
  4. No one with a taxed wealth of over 20 million eligible;
  5. No non-citizens eligible;
  6. The winnings would not be subject to federal tax;
  7. The winnings would be delivered in cash to up to five locations of the winner’s choosing;
  8. The winners’ identities would not be released by the government for one year.

This is not just a fun idea. It is a good and important idea for the health of the country.  Tell me why I’m wrong and be prepared to suffer the shame of your more but greatless wrongness.

Posted in Uncategorized | 6 Comments

They Have a Council You Say?

Here’s a headline from ‘Natural News” aggregated in Citizen Free Press — Ukraine Petitions Council of Europe to Cancel Elections, Suspend Human Rights Protections in Order to “Stop Russia”

Folks, I can’t help but think that this suspension of rights thing is more of a reason for the war than it is a response to the Russian invasion.  Unfortunate that the headline says, ‘Ukraine Petitions’ instead of ‘The Zelensky Regime Petitions.’  Ukraine does not do or ask for anything. If this petition were to be granted, it would certainly underline that there is no Ukraine in a polity sense. It would be a big tell. But regardless of what said council-contraption grants or doesn’t, why suppose or concede that the Council of Europe is at all ethical or legitimate such as to form and give an opinion that matters whit about anything at all?  AmIwrong?  

Posted in Conflict Geography, Conflict Geography, Culture, Geography, Jurisprudence, Lawfare, Strategy, Uncategorized, Worldview | 1 Comment

The Interior of the Deep State

Today let’s talk about Deb Holland.  She might be the bestest postergirl for what is wrong with America’s government right now. I just spent some irritating minutes watching YouTube videos of not-Democrat senators and congressmen asking her questions. If you want a quick political adrenaloutrage rush thing, this little series should do it.

(39) BRUTAL: James Risch Asks Deb Haaland Extremely Simple Questions Over And Over—And She Can’t Answer – YouTube

(39) ‘So You’re Not In Charge?!’: Josh Hawley Goes Absolutely Nuclear On Deb Haaland Over ‘Corruption’ – YouTube

(39) ‘She’s Not Answering My Question’: Harriet Hageman Shows No Mercy Grilling Deb Haaland – YouTube

As an aside, I want to go off in a direction suggested by the last of the above three vids — the plight of American Indian tribes and depredation of tribal lands brought by international drug cartels (presently of mostly Mexican ownership identity). The considerable deterioration in material life brought to the reservations by drug cartels is a byproduct of the Democrat open border policy, to include not only the huge increase in cartel footsoldier numbers, but also the impunity that Democratic Party structures directly and indirectly afford the cartels. It is another depressing and maddening shame brought to us by that collaboration of criminals. That said, I want to highlight an interesting more-than-detail regarding the nature of property ownership. It is something I saw in government-run land tenure systems and reform attempts in Mexico, Honduras, Colombia and other places in Latin America. Like the United States and Canada, the Iberoamerican countries are home to large indigenous landholdings. Summarizing mightily here, it turns out that socialist political parties, drug gangs and hybrids of the two greatly favor traditional centralized tribal leadership schemes over the privatization and particularization of land ownership. The former format keeps the vast majority of tribal populations powerless. Moreover, it presents to criminal organizations infinitely smaller tribal leadership target groups to bribe and blackmail. When we remember that there are a lot of bad people, and then we key in on the significance of planned impunity in their modus operandi, we again see why disperse property ownership is likely to correlate with liberty.

Posted in The 2024 Elections, The War for America, Uncategorized, Worldview | 1 Comment

Ukrainya

I decided to make another comment at Willie OAM’s site. Here below is that comment in full:

“Willie, at around the 19- or 20-minute mark you talk about how the US won’t pull out of NATO. You had also talked a bit about how Zelensky has a ten-year dream. Too soon to say, who can tell, but the probability is that we elect Donald Trump as the next President. The US Ship-of-State being large and cumbersome, any new helmsman who might want to radically change directions will find how the ship doesn’t respond thusly. The US especially suffers inertia in policies and in whatever ideology or interests fuel those policies. The deep state is real, durable and jealous. Nevertheless, things will have a different flavor if an anti-Democrat/anti-Uniparty crew gains top-end influence within the 2025 administration. The notion of ‘pulling out of NATO’ is too on-off, but NATO might take a serious demotion in accordance with the lack of respect a Trump crew will accord that gun club and its reasons for being. Money toward the Ukrainian laundromat will likely continue to flow, but at a much slower pace and lower level. Any decade-long vision for the Zelensky war will be moot nonsense. The borders of post-war Ukraine will emerge within two years of the new US inauguration, that is, by January 2027. What will they look like? Entertaining for us to guess, I guess. My guess? Russia keeps everything it has at this moment plus Kharkiv and Odessa. Curious to see if Transdniestria grows. The new Ukrainya will not be in NATO and will be allowed a military only suitable for defending itself against a Slovakian onslaught. In Muhther Ruhsia, peace treaty make YOU.”

Am I wrong?

Posted in Clausewitz Sucks, Conflict Geography, Conflict Geography, Geography, Strategy, The War for America, Worldview | 7 Comments

Odessa?

I just now made a comment on the Willie OAM site. I had noted that during his presentation and unlike the Military Summary Channel’s moring report, that Willie had taken information about Russian advances in the Robotnye are ‘with a grain of salt.’ My comment was, in relevant part, “Makes sense, given so many months of back-and-forth followed by more of nothing from that direction. Still, it’s a place we should now watch with extra care. The Russians have a deception master plan plenty good enough to keep me confused. More consequentially, there is little reason for confidence that the Russians can’t keep Western intel agencies confused.  We might want to put the lull in Robotnye activity alongside the withdrawal of the Russian Navy.  Wasn’t there recently a burst in the use of Kalibre missiles?  Might be a tell, and so might  taking the little town of Robotnye. Maybe the Russians feel they have successfully addressed the fleet’s vulnerabilities. Maybe maybe the big play is to take Odessa, or maybe the big play is to make a big play for Odessa, thus leaving Kharkiv abandoned. In any case, his Macroness did noting to scare the Russians away from the jewel — which reasonably, historically, logically, strategically, is Catherine’s port. No?” Keep in mind, Willie OAM is almost always correct. So there is that. (29) Surrounded On 3 Sides, More Towns & Positions Fall – Ukraine War Map Analysis & News Update – YouTube ; (29) The Russians Broke Through The Defense In The Zaporizhzhia Direction. Military Summary For 2024.4.30 – YouTube

Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Solve Your Homeless ‘Crisis’

Here’s how to do it in your community, county, state. (You’re welcome.)

  1. Stop using the terms ‘homeless’ or ‘homelessness’;
  2. Address five distinct if overlapping categories of persons —  criminals, drug addicts, mentally infirm, mentally retarded and shiftless;
  3. Approach each of the five categories of persons in terms of geographic architectural isolation;
  4. Build or improve a home for the mentally infirm. A gothic style building is entirely appropriate. Hire actual doctors and inspect. The facility should be located away from urban areas, a long way into the woods or on top of a hill if possible. Legislate to the effect that if a person with a clinical mental health problem is living out-of-code in a zone where building and occupation certification codes apply, that they can be removed and institutionalized.
  5. Build or improve on jails or prisons. Soviet Socialist concrete modern is an acceptable style. Hire more policemen, legislate strictness and deselect soft judges such that more criminals are thrown into the jails and kept there, suffering so that would-be/wannabe criminals think it not a nice place to be. The facility should be located with good fields of fire, away from urban areas if possible.
  6. Build or improve on drug rehab homes for public users of illegal drugs. Make it a felony for anyone to have knowledge of the identity or whereabouts of an illegal drug supplier without reporting same to law enforcement. In other words, even if recreational use is legal, withholding knowledge about the illegal drug supplier would not be.  Make detention in a drug rehab center the penalty for not giving information to police regarding the source of the user’s drug.  Do not allow drugs into the rehab home except as prescribed by a medical doctor. A gothic/soviet socialist postmodern hybrid design style is appropriate here. This facility should be located away from urban areas, not too far from the home for the mentally infirm if possible.
  7. Build or improve on a work farm. Keep this well out of town if possible. This farm, for the shiftless (aka bum, hobo, vagrant) should have a camping area. The architecture should be Civilian Conservation Corps/ National Forest Fire Outpost style. Good ventilation. It should not be hard from which to escape, but a resident’s returning to a zone of removal (see number 9) should be a misdemeanor, recidivism for which could earn classification into another category.
  8. Build or improve on school facilities and dorm opportunities for the mentally retarded and improve work placement opportunities and family outreach for these individuals. Keep them apart from the other four categories if at all possible. The architectural style should be as home-like as is affordable.
  9. Create zones of removal wherein camping (defined as sleeping in a structure not in accordance with local building and occupation certification rules or sleeping horizontally without a structure) is illegal [with the exception of sunbathing, provided one is wearing a bathing suit, has been watching their diet, working out regularly and is not old old]. Here’s hoping the Supreme Court comes through in City of Grants Pass v. Johnson.
Posted in Conflict Geography, Conflict Geography, Culture, Geography, Property, Worldview | 5 Comments

Guerrilla War

OK, this post also refers to someone else who knows more. Frustrating how many of those there are.  Willie OAM, on this very April 24, 2024 (15) UA Withdraws As RU Exploits An Opportunity – Can This Be Overcome? – Ukraine War Map Analysis & News – YouTube  (at about the six-minute mark) serves us a prompt.  It will interest those of you still pondering what we might learn from the Ukraine fiasco in the area of military tactics/operation/strategy. (An aside: A couple of you have told me that you don’t like slash words, that is, compounds made lazily using the / thing. ‘Shut Up!,’ I explain. That / thing is used in URLs because it’s handy, and anyway I’ve never liked the denotative distance American military curricula put between the three.) There exists in our military grammar a supposed difference suggesting ‘maneuver’ is an opposite of ‘guerrilla’. That’s nuts. Fuhgeddaboudit. Willie OAM quoted someone (whose name is not revealed, but who Willie thinks knows his stuff and who has direct knowledge).  I quote in relevant part,

“VDV are led by Spetsnaz there in small teams utilizing hit and run tactics along with their joint fires capability and its working well and they’re gaining ground fast, small hard fast teams in and out, something the Ukrainians should be doing and that’s what I would do. The Russians are constantly learning and amending their tactics. The Ukrainian command needs a punch in the head for years of lazy incompetence…”

I would like to make a few points, points to which I hope you will respond.  Combat in Ukraine has devolved into a sort of peer-on-peer (technologically-speaking) linear slog with great advantage given by airpower, indirect fires, trenches and anti-vehicular landmines. What seems to be working to move the front? Small hit-and-run maneuverings. Are the Russians the hidebound ones? Not so much. May I use the term strategy of aggregate tactics? I think so. Did the Germans try something like this in WWI and call them stormtroopers? Maybe, but did they hit-and-run in an effort to cause local attrition? I don’t think so.

Discuss

Posted in Clausewitz Sucks, Conflict Geography, Conflict Geography, Geography, Strategy, Uncategorized | 2 Comments