I just re-read my 5 December post in which I set my strategery prediction for the Ukraine war. I’m sticking with it. April comes and we will witness a shift in the Democrat narrative. Somehow, they will try to sell the idea that Trump or his MAGA acolytes will have botched things for NATO and the West, and that’s why the Russians have clearly defeated the noble Volodymyrites. The Ruskies will have some mopping-up to do, but it will have become undeniable by late Spring that the Russians won, albeit at a greater cost that they expected. I admit that I had thought back last year that the Russians would have had this sewed up within six weeks or so after they started, but my thinking had once again fallen into the mistake of believing that the US administration could not be so dumb as to commit to a militarily dubious enterprise outside NATO boundaries — right after having so badly muffed the Afghanistan withdrawal. My little brain thing was trapped within the same walls that I am forever railing against. The Democrats were not interested in Freedom, security of NATO Europe, or the sins of Putin. That was all ridiculous on its face. The Democrats were looking to protect their impunity. Anyhow, in my December post I suggested that strategy basics would hold sway, that distance and weight would prevail in this case, and indeed they will. One thing I did not stress, however, and it needs to be highlighted, is the lack of an honest, reasonable (or, hell, if not those things, at least expressed and logical) US objective. Constantly intoning that the US, “will do whatever it takes” is the clear giveaway, the tell. Our government won’t say what “it” is. The Russian government seems to know what “it” is for them. They’re going to take the good stuff. The “West” will then get to kissing Russian strategic butt again, even as Western diplomats make scolding tweets about bad Putin. The duplicity will be especially unseemly as the samo samo Democrats try to explain why they raised up an inveterate lying corruptionist to be President of the United States.
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I’m commenting on my own post here. It is 6 April today, so even if I give my prediction the benefit of the whole month, we’re about at a point where I might have to admit that I was wrong. Don’t like that, so I’m not gonna do it quite yet. I saw CNN today predicting that a smashing, highly likely to succeed Ukrainian counteroffensive was in the wings. That dubious assertion combined with another news item from CNBC, suggesting Ukraine was willing to concede the Crimea, is enough to make me think I’m still on-track predictions-wise. I don’t see the news media talking Ukraine up as much as it did a few months ago, but that might be for unrelated reasons. I don’t know. Still, it may very well be that the Russians are now going to create more defensive barriers and position forces to hold what they’ve gained — which is to say the territory they were looking for to begin with. Soon they’ll just tell their new Chinese friends that it’s over, they won. Listen for Putin to tell NATO to pound sand during the victory parade in Red Square. Maybe Zelensky can get the CCP to set him up as dictator of “Rump Ukraine.” He’ll be flexible enough when he finds out “Western” Europe is done with the show.