Willy ended his show today, 12 May, with a reasonable “No one bloody knows.” Russia’s Real Goal As Multiple Positions FALL – ‘Extremely Dire’ – Ukraine War Map Analysis (youtube.com) The Russian territorial advance has picked up speed of late, but as to Russian objectives, “No one bloody knows” is reasonable analysis. Still, this would be a good time for us to place some bets — as a record for grading our predictive senses. How about we each assert an approximate line of Russian advance as of a date certain, say 1 February 2025? I suggest that date because right now I assume Donald Trump will have become President of the United States, will have his foreign affairs team more-or-less in place and will have set in motion an abrupt end to US support to the Kviv regime. Eight months is a long time, I know, so no shame in being wrong. My prediction: The borderline of Russian control will run approximately along highway E584 all the way from Okny in the south through Kropyvnyski to Poltova then north through Sumy. Anyone?
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I am not betting on Trump for a variety of reasons, primarily the historical record suggests that his opposition will not permit him to win, on the same line of emotional reasoning that the same volk cannot bring themselves to imagine Russia “winning” (an undefined end state). Remembering the head-of-state carousel in Viet Nam which had the US of A on the speed governor, I would be more likely to bet on Zelensky being removed, and then the old carousel from Saigon reconditioned and installed in Kiev, head of state of the month replacing flavor of the month as a marketing gimmick. And I would suggest to Mr. Z. not to accept the invitation for a ride in an armored personnel carrier, especially an M113…
Too lazy to read map, but… but 5% increase for Russians. Trump winning though? 49%
You give Trump less than 50/50 chance? Harsh.