Russians Strike

Some folk anticipated a big airstrike against targets inside Ukraine for Saturday the 23rd of August, that being a sort of independence celebration day (the ‘sort of’ is deserved, BTW). The attack came Sunday (yesterday), and as of this post, I have not read any real damage assessments. My guess is that the Ukrainian energy grid took another body blow, but that nothing much has changed. More significant is the Ukrainian regime’s public worrying about armored forces massing in southern Belarus. Maybe those forces are Russian? Dunno, but the Ukrainian Kursk offensive may or may not be stalled at this time. Meanwhile, the Russians’ grinding advance from the east continues. I think the Ukrainians have done well on the ground to this point but may have made their last-gasp play in Kursk. OK, so here is my prediction: By November, the Russians will have taken Pokrovsk and will continue eastward against decreasingly effective opposition. The Ukrainian regime will not have solved its manpower problem, that is, will not be able to change the huge imbalance in warfighting capacities. Donald Trump will win the election in the United States. The lame-duck regime in Washington will do what it can to delay the Ukrainian regime’s demise, but seeing the future more clearly, will be trying to establish golden parachutes for select regime members, trying to destroy evidence, killing witnesses, and maybe laying the psychological-political foundation for a big virtuous Ukrainian rebuild money cow. Within three months after President Trump’s inauguration, the warfare in Ukraine will be over, the future borders of Ukraine clarified. Ukraine will be smaller, not in NATO, not in the EU, and not getting much US money. It will still have Odessa, however, and probably Kharkiv. Anyone?

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