Now seems like a good time to take a chance and to make a prediction. This is a Sunday afternoon, and the newsfeeds say that Iran could launch some kind of a direct military attack on Israel as early as tomorrow. The Democrat Party saddled itself with a dim candidate and are probably busy calculating whether their cheat machine can produce enough fake votes to carry her. They gotta be dancing around painfully trying to figure out how to seem to support Israel and to not support Israel at the same time. The Democrats cannot allow Easy-K to come away looking like a push-over. They also don’t want to lose their pro-Islamist base, or do they want to lose what remains of their progressive Jewish support. Tough position to be in. Not sure who any of that helps more, the Israelites or the Mullahs. The latter might try taking out some Israeli boat, tourist concentration, embassy or something else away from Israel, perhaps as a diversion or perhaps as the principal revenge. They might launch a rocket or a bunch of them, but I bet they are not ready technically or psychologically to fail at a nuke attempt just yet. As for Hezbollah chiefs, it makes sense that they stand up and implement some part of what they have been preparing for years. As for them, however, their leadership might be concentrating on how to stay alive. Which brings us to a point about military strategic theorizing, my being the greatest living military strategy theorist and all. (The Israelis have neither been studying my work nor feeding me guidance, but it just as well could have been.) I’ve never been an enthusiastic participant in military debates about the “center of gravity.” Let’s not say that no such center exists or that it isn’t a worthy thing to consider and look for. It is profitable, however, especially in the context of multiform warfare or all-forms-of-struggle struggles, to highlight and address the enemy mens rea — which might be a mind of technical management, inspiration and encouragement, intelligence, logistical wherewithal — whatever. The mens rea of an enemy organization might reside inside the skull of one man or the corporate skulls of the nucleus of a party vanguard, or of a bishopric, military staff — whatever. The mens rea skulls might be unique, irreplaceable and hidebound or might be the product of a sophisticated training, selection and normalized replacement process – whatever. Whatever, the mens rea should be targeted if it can be reached. What does it matter how many Persians exist, how many hostile Moslem countries there are, how many enemy tanks the Israelis might have to face or how feckless a US administration can be? Well, OK, all that matters a lot, but if the Israelis can show they can range and hurt their enemies’ mens rea, said cogitatin’ matter will think twice, think poorly, think too late, think again. Some Israeli citizens will suffer this week, but their government made the right play.
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